Balance
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Total P&L
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Win Rate
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Open Positions
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Unrealised: –
Cumulative P&L
Agent Accuracy
Recent Trades
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Open Positions
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Trade History
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Activity Log
How NBABot Works
A paper trading bot that finds mispriced NBA games on Polymarket using 3 independent prediction models. No real money, zero risk.
Live Polymarket Odds
→
3 AI Agents Analyze
→
Swarm Consensus
→
Edge Detected?
→
You Decide to Bet
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market. You buy shares in an outcome. The share price IS the probability.
Celtics share = 75¢
If Celtics win → share pays $1.00
Your profit: 25¢ per share
Market thinks: 75% chance
Your profit: 25¢ per share
Market thinks: 75% chance
Suns share = 25¢
If Suns win → share pays $1.00
Your profit: 75¢ per share
Market thinks: 25% chance
Your profit: 75¢ per share
Market thinks: 25% chance
Key insight: 75¢ = 75% chance. The prices are set by thousands of real bettors, so they're usually accurate — but not always. That's where we come in.
A Complete Example: Start to Finish
Let's walk through exactly what happens when the bot analyzes a game.
Step 1: Read Polymarket odds
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
Polymarket says: Nuggets 87.5% / Grizzlies 12.5%
Translation: The crowd thinks the Nuggets are heavy favorites.
Polymarket says: Nuggets 87.5% / Grizzlies 12.5%
Translation: The crowd thinks the Nuggets are heavy favorites.
Step 2: Three agents independently analyze
Statistical Agent says Nuggets have a 62% chance
Based on: Nuggets 44-23 record (.657 WP), +4.8 net pts, 0.7 recent form
Based on: Nuggets 44-23 record (.657 WP), +4.8 net pts, 0.7 recent form
Odds Movement Agent says 50% (neutral)
No price history yet — this agent abstains and returns neutral
No price history yet — this agent abstains and returns neutral
Market Model Agent says Nuggets have a 65% chance
Based on: Elo rating 1663 vs 1480, +50 home court bonus
Based on: Elo rating 1663 vs 1480, +50 home court bonus
Step 3: Swarm combines them
Weighted average of all 3 agents → Nuggets 57%
All 3 agree Nuggets should win, but only at ~57%, NOT at 87.5%
All 3 agree Nuggets should win, but only at ~57%, NOT at 87.5%
Step 4: Calculate the edge
Polymarket says Grizzlies have: 12.5% chance
Bot thinks Grizzlies actually have: 43% chance (100% - 57%)
Edge = 43% − 12.5% = 30.5%
The market is massively undervaluing the Grizzlies. Bot suggests betting on Grizzlies.
Step 5: Kelly sizes the bet
With a 30.5% edge and $10,000 bankroll → Kelly suggests $48
Buy Grizzlies shares at 12.5¢. If they win, each pays $1.00 = massive return.
Buy Grizzlies shares at 12.5¢. If they win, each pays $1.00 = massive return.
When there's NO edge:
Celtics vs. Knicks
Polymarket: Celtics 68% / Bot: Celtics 67%
Edge = 1% → Below 4% threshold → No bet
The market got it right. No opportunity here.
Polymarket: Celtics 68% / Bot: Celtics 67%
Edge = 1% → Below 4% threshold → No bet
The market got it right. No opportunity here.
The 3 Agents Explained
Statistical Agent
Pure math. No opinions. Looks at three things:
Win rate — What % of games has each team won this season?
Net points — On average, does this team outscore opponents or get outscored?
Recent form — How did each team do in their last 10 games?
Adds +3 points for home court advantage. Confidence: 72% with real data, 40% without.
Odds Movement Agent
Tracks how Polymarket prices change over time.
Price velocity — How fast is the price moving and in which direction?
Smart money — Rapid price jumps often mean informed bettors are buying in
Reversion — If prices moved too fast, they sometimes snap back
Returns 50% (neutral) when no price history exists. Won't guess without data.
Market Model Agent
Elo rating system — the same concept used to rank chess players.
Elo score — Each team gets a rating based on win% and point differential
Home boost — Home team gets +50 Elo points (home court advantage)
Gap detection — Compares its calculated probability to the market price
Confidence scales with the gap — bigger disagreement with market = more confident.
Signal Quality — When to Bet
CLEAN SIGNAL — Your best opportunities
All 3 agents agree on the winner. Gold border on the card. These are sorted to the top.
What to do: If there's also a large edge (8%+), this is the strongest bet signal the bot can produce.
What to do: If there's also a large edge (8%+), this is the strongest bet signal the bot can produce.
NOISY SIGNAL — Proceed with caution
2 out of 3 agents agree, or all agree but with wide confidence spread.
What to do: Consider betting if the edge is large. The bot doesn't auto-reduce size here.
What to do: Consider betting if the edge is large. The bot doesn't auto-reduce size here.
RISKY — Agents predict different winners
At least one agent picks the home team while another picks the away team.
What to do: Generally skip. If you bet anyway, the suggested size is automatically halved.
What to do: Generally skip. If you bet anyway, the suggested size is automatically halved.
Your Paper Portfolio
Everything saves automatically. Your balance, open positions, trade history, P&L, and agent accuracy all persist in your browser between sessions. Close the tab, come back next week — it's all there.
Placing a bet: Click a team side to select it → Click "Place Bet" → Confirm size and price → Position appears in Positions tab.
Closing a bet: Go to Positions tab → Click "Close" → Enter exit price (1.00 for win, 0.00 for loss) → P&L is calculated and added to History.
No auto-betting. The bot only predicts. YOU decide which bets to place. Nothing happens without your click.
Warning: Data lives in localStorage. Clearing your browser data or switching browsers will reset everything. The "Reset All Trading Data" button in Settings also resets everything.
Data Sources
Polymarket Gamma APILive game odds, market prices, volume, liquidity. Free, no auth needed. Updated in real-time by thousands of real bettors.
balldontlie APIReal NBA game results, team records, scores. Free tier. Stats (win%, net points, recent form) are computed from actual game history.
No Claude tokens or AI APIs are used. The "agents" are math formulas running locally in your browser. Zero cost to run. Use the Audit tab to verify every number.
Quick Glossary
EdgeBot's probability minus market's probability. Bigger = better opportunity.
Kelly CriterionFormula that sizes bets proportional to edge. We use 25% Kelly (conservative).
DissentAgents predict different winners. Bet size is halved as a safety measure.
AgreementHow many agents picked the same winner. 100% = all 3 agree.
ConfidenceHow sure an agent (or the swarm) is. Low-confidence agents get less weight.
Elo RatingNumber representing team strength. Higher = better. Home teams get +50 bonus.
Paper TradingSimulated trading with fake money. Lets you test strategies risk-free.
Data Audit — Verify Every Number
Pick a game to see exactly where every number came from and how every calculation was done. Nothing is hidden or made up.
Stats Database — Verify Every Number
Look up any player or team stat from our database and verify it matches basketball-reference.com.
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1 Player Lookup
2 Team Lookup
Settings
Configuration
Improves team stats and prediction accuracy. Works without it using estimates.
Only auto-trade when edge is above this %
0.25 = quarter Kelly (conservative). 1.0 = full Kelly (aggressive).
Paper Trading
All trades are 100% simulated. State is saved in your browser's localStorage — it persists between sessions.